In the South China Sea, a new reality is emerging, one where the rules of the game are being rewritten, and the stakes are higher than ever. The once-submerged Antelope Reef, a small island in the north-western corner of the sea, has undergone a dramatic transformation in just six months. Millions of tonnes of sand have been dredged from the seabed, creating a 6-square-kilometre crescent of gleaming white sand, with a scattering of buildings in one corner. This is not just a geographical shift; it's a powerful statement, a symbol of the changing dynamics in the region.
China, the world's largest dredger, has been at the forefront of this land reclamation. With its fleet of cutter suction dredgers, some capable of scooping up 6,000 cubic metres of sand an hour, China has turned reefs into islands, claiming almost the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory. This is not just about territorial expansion; it's a display of power, a message to the world, and a challenge to its neighbours.
But China is not alone in this game. Vietnam, too, has joined the dredging war, using the same powerful cutter suction ships. Over the past three years, Vietnam has pumped sand into at least 20 reefs, creating 11 new harbours and controlling more than 11 square kilometres of reclaimed land. This is a strategic move, a way to counter China's expansion and assert its own presence in the region.
The Philippines, too, is not sitting idly by. It is expanding its runway at Pagasa Island, putting a coastguard base there, and reinforcing its rusting landing craft. This is a recognition that the legally binding code of conduct, which has eluded the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) for 30 years, is unlikely to materialise. Instead, the Philippines is seeking new alliances and expanding its military cooperation with the United States.
The new reality in the South China Sea is one of every country for itself. It is a recognition that China will always be the biggest and most assertive player, and that the smaller claimants must make the most of what they already control. This is not a sustainable situation, but it is the current state of affairs. The dredging war is not just about land reclamation; it's a symbol of the changing dynamics in the region, a reflection of the power struggles and strategic calculations that shape the South China Sea.
