The 2026 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, Scotland, promises to be an exciting event, especially for swimming enthusiasts. One of the key storylines to watch is the potential dominance of Sam Short in the distance events. Short, an Australian swimmer, is eyeing a sweep of the 400m, 800m, and 1500m freestyle events, and his recent form suggests he could achieve this remarkable feat.
The Distance Sweep
The addition of the 800m freestyle to the men's event lineup at the Commonwealth Games has created an opportunity for Short to showcase his versatility and endurance. With his main rival, Dan Wiffen, seemingly out of form, Short is the clear favorite to dominate these distance events.
400m Freestyle: Short's Dominance
In the 400m freestyle, Short has been on fire, clocking an impressive 3:40.67 at the Australian Trials. This performance, just 0.01 seconds off his world gold-winning time, puts him in a league of his own. Short's consistency throughout the season, with times of 3:45.88, 3:43.49, and 3:42.53, further solidifies his status as the favorite. He has stated his ambition to break the 3:39 barrier, and with his current form, it's not an unrealistic goal.
The Enigma of Dan Wiffen
Contrasting Short's dominance is the enigma that is Dan Wiffen. Wiffen, who owns a personal best of 3:44.35, has had a below-par season, with his best time this year being a 3:49.35. His decision to move his training base back to Ireland after a brief stint in California suggests a potential lack of confidence or a need for a change in environment. While Wiffen is a medal contender at his best, his current form makes him more of a mid-pack swimmer in this final.
Rekindling Old Flames: James Guy's Return
James Guy, a surprising returnee to the 400m freestyle event after nearly a decade, has the second-fastest season best. His time of 3:44.04 is a decade-best for him, and he has proven himself as a big-race swimmer, dropping time at the Olympics and making the 200m freestyle final at the World Championships. Guy, a former world champion in the 200m freestyle, is a dark horse in this event and could challenge for a podium finish.
The Reigning Champion: Elijah Winnington
Elijah Winnington, the reigning Commonwealth champion in the 400m freestyle, has been trending downwards since his gold medal-winning performance. His time at the Australian Trials was his slowest since 2019, and he has added time in the summer for the past three seasons. While he and Guy are entered almost level, Winnington's recent form raises doubts about his ability to repeat his past performances.
The Challengers
Benjamin Goedemans and Tyler Melbourne-Smith are among the challengers, with Goedemans clocking a 3:45.85 at the Australian Trials. However, it's Northern Ireland's Jack McMillan who has shown the most improvement, setting a new best of 3:46.82. McMillan's consistent drops in recent years give him an edge over Goedemans, but both are likely to challenge for a spot in the final.
800m and 1500m Freestyle: Short's Commonwealth Records
In the 800m freestyle, Short is again the heavy favorite. He clocked a new personal best of 7:36.73 at the Australian Trials, the third-fastest swim in history. With the fastest season best by nearly 11 seconds, Short is in a league of his own. His speed and strength in the 200m and 400m freestyle events make him an even more formidable opponent in the 800m.
Dan Wiffen, the Olympic champion in the 800m freestyle, is Short's biggest rival in this event. While Wiffen has lost his European record, he still has the potential to challenge Short, especially if he can return to his peak form. However, Wiffen's recent performances, including a disappointing 8th-place finish at the World Championships, suggest he may not be at his best this season.
In the 1500m freestyle, Short is the top seed, but his shift in focus towards the 200m freestyle could leave an opening for Wiffen. Short is the fastest man in the Commonwealth this season, but Wiffen, the Commonwealth record holder, could pose a significant challenge if he can find his best form.
SwimSwam's Picks
SwimSwam's predictions for the distance events at the 2026 Commonwealth Games are as follows:
400m Freestyle
- Sam Short (AUS) - 3:40.67
- James Guy (ENG) - 3:44.04
- Elijah Winnington (AUS) - 3:44.17
800m Freestyle
- Sam Short (AUS) - 7:36.73
- Dan Wiffen (NIR) - 7:50.37
- Benjamin Goedemans (AUS) - 7:47.62
1500m Freestyle
- Sam Short (AUS) - 14:42.09
- Dan Wiffen (NIR) - 14:51.38
- Benjamin Goedemans (AUS) - 14:50.67
The 2026 Commonwealth Games promises to be an exciting showcase of talent, with Sam Short's potential sweep of the distance events being a highlight. While Short is the clear favorite, the presence of experienced swimmers like Dan Wiffen and James Guy adds an element of intrigue and competition to these events.
